講真，如果英美同中國向南海開打，勝算幾何？

[恆智德]

原先我覺得中國海軍肯定不堪一擊，但睇到大陸論壇上一啲觀點，就發現問題似乎唔係咁簡單

問題在於中國肯定唔會出海軍同你打；如果英美航母真係開入南海近海，恐怕就會落入轟炸機同飛彈射程之内；特別係飛彈，就算有攔截系統，可能都無法承受大量攻擊（就算國產貨得20%命中率，打得多都頂唔順）

2016年南海仲裁時，美軍曾經派兩支航母戰隊入南海，但最終撤退；大陸論壇普遍觀點都係認爲被飛彈震懾，以及航母群坐標暴露，被迫撤退
比如呢篇文：https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/87474407

大家點睇？或者有無英文媒體詳細講述2016年呢件事？

[親衛隊]

如果中國出得飛彈，美軍喺日韓嘅基地都可以反擊中國沿海城市（或者減少平民傷亡專門攻擊機場？）？

2016感覺係兩邊都唔想事態升級。

[恆智德]

@親衛隊 中國出飛彈可以專打航母，但美國一旦打中國沿海城市就會處於道德低地，面臨強大輿論壓力：一來，飛彈再準都好，打得多點都會有幾粒脫靶，一脫靶就可能造成重大平民傷亡；二來，中共分分鐘擺平民落軍事機構度，等你投鼠忌器

2016我都思疑雙方傾過，比如SCMP篇文就提到美國航母撤退之後，中國都撤除了南海島嶼上嘅飛彈

China removed its new generation surface-to-air missiles from Woody Island in the South China Sea two days ahead an international tribunal ruling on a territorial dispute in the waters, IHS Janes Defence magazine ­reported, citing satellite images.

The images from Airbus ­Defence and Space showed a ­battery of HQ-9 missiles was ­removed on July 10, two days ­before the Permanent Court of ­Arbitration in The Hague rejected Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, the report said.

[恆智德]

https://today.line.me/TW/article/941054c74f96d1cc3059e61784c44059d0c17c3f0b29d0dcfebe91237e5197e5
Line Today呢篇文回顧返46年至今南海爭議，圖文並茂，正

[恆智德]

@恆智德 原來台灣都支持九段綫（可能仲多，十一段綫）


條限劃到去人屋企門口，憑乜？

[恆智德]

@恆智德 上文提及當時國家安全顧問Susan Rice7月底訪問北京，仲話之後美軍會同共軍繼續合作

US National ­Security Adviser Susan Rice will visit Beijing for a four-day trip starting tomorrow, the foreign ministry said. Rice will be the highest-level US official to visit China since the Hague rulings.

Even as Washington has sought to keep a lid on the situation, Rice told Reuters news agency that the US military would continue to “sail and fly and operate” in the South China Sea, despite a Chinese warning that such patrols could end “in disaster”.

無開打，可能都同Obama就來離任有關，兼且當年9月中國舉辦G20

With less than six months remaining in US President Barack Obama’s time in office, Rice’s broader mission in her trip is aimed at keeping overall ties ­between the world’s two largest economies, which she called “the most consequential relationship we have”, on track at a time of heightened tensions.

Rice is expected to meet Xi during her visit and her agenda will include North Korea, economic issues and human rights. She would also lay the groundwork for Obama’s talks with Xi at a G20 summit in China in September, US officials said.

[恆智德]

@恆智德 另外一篇SCMP時評都認爲雙方表現出剋制，美國航母撤出南海（7月5日）之後向夏威夷演習，其中有共軍艦艇參加

Nevertheless, there are signs that the US and China are exercising restraint. The two navies have practical mechanisms for guiding air and maritime encounters. Also, a Chinese flotilla is now participating in the US-led Rim of the Pacific naval exercises in Hawaii. It seems that both sides have thrown down the gauntlet but neither is ready to open a Pandora’s box.

當然，粉紅肯定會話「嗱，美國佬都怕中共，所以先會縮沙，以和爲貴」

[恆智德]

另外一個因素就係6月份菲律賓選出新總統Rodrigo Duterte

渠上任之後極親中，南海仲裁結果公佈（7月12日）幾日之後話肯同中國合作，共同開發，並籌措使團去北京協商

Three days after, during a testimonial dinner in San Juan, Duterte asked former President Fidel Ramos to lead the Philippine envoy to Beijing for bilateral negotiations with China over the disputes.

菲美關係幾個月内更加急轉直下，
7月9日Duterte屌英美向中東輸出恐怖主義

In July 2016, Duterte accused the United Kingdom and the United States of importing terrorism to the Middle East through its interventions, saying: "The U.S. destroyed the Middle East. ... Great Britain and the U.S. will not admit that they forced their way to Iraq and killed Saddam. Look at Iraq now. Look what happened to Libya. Look what happened to Syria."

9月東盟峰會甚至屌鳩Obma係「Son of a whore」，要求美軍撤出菲律賓

At the 2016 ASEAN Summit, Duterte and U.S. President Barack Obama planned to meet with each other.[350] The United States said that President Obama planned to discuss the 2,400 Filipinos who died during Duterte's war on drugs.[350] Duterte criticized the planned topic of the meeting, saying, "I am no American puppet. I am the president of a sovereign country and I am not answerable to anyone except the Filipino people. You must be respectful. Do not just throw away questions and statements. Son of a whore, I will curse you in that forum."[351] The vulgar insult prompted the White House to cancel the meeting instead.

On September 12, 2016, Duterte said that he is "not a fan of the Americans" and that he wants to "reorient" foreign policy with the United States. He requested that U.S. forces in Mindanao should leave the Philippines, specifically those who are part of the Operation Enduring Freedom, saying that it would "inflame the situation with the Abu Sayyaf".

10月份叫Obma落地獄，又話要結束菲律賓同美國向南海嘅聯合巡邏

In October 2016, Duterte continued his tirade against the US and the European Union saying in Tagalog that "Mr. Obama, you can go to hell. EU, better choose purgatory. Hell is already full. Why should I be afraid of you?"

On October 12, Duterte declared his intention to terminate joint US–Philippine naval patrols in the South China Sea, which he believes could needlessly antagonize China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte

[恆智德]

@恆智德 16年7月份之後，至少侵上任前，完完全全就係中共走狗

粉紅都話係因爲美軍航母被迫撤離之後Duterte覺得美國靠唔住，一於反水托中國大腳

[恆智德]

爬完2016年呢段古，總結下：

個人判斷就係當時美軍確實無準備開打（Obama都就來離任，兼且一直以來都唔強硬，連俄國併吞克里米亞都無乜激烈反應），就算派兩支航母艦隊都不過想曬馬嚇下中共

點知雜種企硬，不單止集合三支艦隊去南海演習，仲擺出開戰姿態（有唔少帖文都提及當時連預備役軍人都徵召待命）；美國人擔心開打之後損失重大，就撤退了

經此一役，雜種越來越心雄，覺得美國就係紙老虎，戰狼情結無限膨脹，向南海不斷擴張，甚至起人工島同機場；而侵又奉行單邊主義，衹關心同中國傾trade deal，其他事闊佬懶理，由得中國向南海坐大

[恆智德]

@恆智德 打就肯定無心打，不過被迫撤退又唔一定
其中一隻航母USS John C. Stennis撤離南海一星期之後就參加夏威夷環太平洋軍演，肯定係預先計劃好，無可能呢頭撤離就即刻走去軍演
https://www.stripes.com/news/biden-praises-stennis-crew-for-maintaining-south-china-sea-stability-1.419179

[恆智德]

睇下上面張圖，如果真係開片第一戰略目標就係Scarborough shoal（紅圈中心，中共叫黃岩島，但實情係礁/沙洲），Woody Island永興島可能會畀中國，Spratly Islands南沙群島日後再講

真係唔明美軍點解輕易讓出Scarborough shoal，離菲律賓本土咁近都唔爭，搞到菲律賓人都媽訍美國

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal
It was expected for the United States to defend the territory of the Philippines through the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, however, the United States chose to move itself away from its obligations, which resulted in the United States being branded as an 'unreliable ally', while China's expansionist ideals in the Asia-Pacific region was solidified.

[親衛隊]

@恆智德 咩叫「道德低地」？

南中國海係公海嚟，如果飛彈射美軍航母就係中國主動宣戰，反擊中國軍事設施係完全合理喎。

[恆智德]

@親衛隊 我意思係誤中，或者中共會擺平民落軍事設施度（相當於將軍事機構僞裝成民用機構）

[親衛隊]

@恆智德 拖平民落水算唔算違反國際法？性質同投降之後軍人混入平民之中打遊擊一樣。

😜如果美國真係開波，最有利嘅係快速結束戰鬥。如果唔想拖長戰線就要打沿海（對平民直接斬首最好）+扶植新親美政權

[恆智德]

@親衛隊 開波中共就無所顧忌，乜拿渣招都會使，反而美國仲要面
不過誤中其實都難免，衹要唔係死好多平民應該都唔會有太大異議

開波應該就打Scarborough shoal（1947年民國命名爲民主礁）
不過中共話唔埋會戰略性放棄

如果中國企硬，對進入Scarborough shoal的航母發起攻擊，咁美國必須第一時間炸平機場同飛彈發射基地
但如果飛彈從潛艇發射，可能都幾難搞

對平民直接斬首最好？中國大把韭菜，黨根本唔在乎
定係對官員？

[恆智德]

原來南沙有三個機場，睇來開打之後都需要第一時間鏟平
最多留返永興島畀中國同越南爭

[RAM友]

@恆智德 揮刀14億下 不過我懷疑重演長崎廣島核平中共都係wfc，話唔定自己引爆屈返美軍轉頭 要炸應該揀軍事資源最集中既地方，通常唔會人口密集。

[恆智德]

其實美國大把手段，未必一下就去到軍事衝突/熱戰咁盡
科技脫鈎先剛開始，制裁中共黨員招大絕都未出
除非中共真係作死，主動攻擊美軍

不過當年美國都係通過不斷制裁日本局到日本偷襲珍珠港，跟住美軍就師出有名

[RAM友]

@恆智德 其實武肺死得人仲多，一旦證明到係中国專登放生化武器，佢死十世都唔掂

[恆智德]

@RAM友 在 講真，如果英美同中國向南海開打，勝算幾何？ 中說：

一旦證明到係中国專登放生化武器

連病毒泄露都證明唔到，更加難證明係生化武器
證據早就銷毀，連病毒源頭邊度來都唔清楚

[RAM友]

@恆智德 難講冇人收起證據自保

[恆智德]

@RAM友 噉一般會去到生死關頭先會攞出來

[RAM友]

@恆智德 通常呢啲一爆就係shock news，每隻棋子倒數時間唔一樣好難預測，但如果我係中共我一定會諗辦法捉鬼

[Rehk]

@RAM友 好多時候都係打心理戰，傳出有鬼等對方捉鬼，對方陣營自然人心浮動，本來冇鬼都變有鬼，實則虛之虛則實之

[恆智德]

睇埋 https://xsden.info/topic/945/ 入邊有關東方系列中程導彈資料，美國想哽南海落肚恐怕真係無想象中容易

東風21型主要部署在遼寧、江西、雲南、福建、青海等地，美國方面研判約50到100支之間

如果美國無法一開戰就迅速摧毀中共導彈發射基地，對中國真係會矜手矜腳，得個講

之不過東風-21是地面車載彈道導彈，導彈車儲存、舉起、發射三位一體。每組發射車另配5輛後勤車輛保障；理論上真係難捉

[恆智德]

@恆智德 原來東風-26都係車載，舊年（19年）上過十一閲兵

[恆智德]

要判斷東風導彈係咪會對美軍航母構成威脅，應該主要睇兩點：
一係能否獲取航母準確坐標，二係導彈精度

一唔太清楚
二就有人話DF-21D精度大概20米，DF-26精度150-450米
注：精度以CEP衡量，即50%導彈可以落入目標附近；
比如 CEP = 20米即係有50%導彈會落入目標20米之内

The reportedly more accurate DF-21D (frequently referred to as the “carrier killer”) is stated to have a CEP of 20 meters.
Importantly, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project, the DF-26 is believed to have a CEP of between 150-450 meters.

上面數據來自今年2月The Diplomat
作者從今年1月8日伊朗襲擊美軍駐伊拉克基地嘅導彈精度達5-10米，
推斷中共導彈精度已經比以前大大提高，對美軍航母構成實質威脅
（因爲一路都有情報話伊朗都從中國購買導彈）

[恆智德]

今日蕭生分析過中共射導彈呢件事，主要從戰略上分析
蕭生認爲射導彈係中共底牌，表明中共已經無法用常規手段遏制美軍向南海嘅活動

但如果美軍繼續挑釁，中共都唔敢放肆
因爲射導彈得兩種結果：一係打唔中，貽笑大方；
一係打中，造成美軍航母上邊7千士兵傷亡，結果美國瘋狂報復，唔打殘中共誓不罷休

我buy蕭生個分析，不過對佢結論有所保留
因爲蕭生個分析衹適用於正常人，唔適用於雜種
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIuYXm7jHag

[Drdoom]

對中國人嚟講，勝算百分百。
http://confedcantonia.blogspot.com/2020/07/blog-post_29.html

[恆智德]

@恆智德 在 講真，如果英美同中國向南海開打，勝算幾何？ 中說：

能否獲取航母準確坐標

軍事專家吳明杰對此有更多分析：
要獲得航母實時動態坐標，需要有其他傳感器
之所以要打去西沙水域，可能就係附近島礁有安裝
向其他水域，共軍就未必能夠獲得航母準確坐標

吳同時認爲呢次射出四支導彈其實係戰略失敗
兩種導彈射程都覆蓋周邊國家；
而家成功發射盞使中國周邊國家對中國更加警惕
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5qrasnK4nI&pp=QADQAwE%3D